INTELLIGENCE BRIEF | 25 May 2010
For the time being, the issue is to be regarded as merely another chapter in North Korean “blackmail diplomacy” and escalating threats do not indicate major hostilities are imminent. While investors should be aware that the rising tension does raise the possibility of tactical naval confrontations in the West Sea (as it happened in 1999 and 2002) or unintended small-scale military border clashes, it is rather unlikely either of the Koreas will risk a larger conflict.
OIL REPORT | 20 May 2010
The correction we were expecting since March did occur. We now believe this correction is over - though our optimism may be somewhat premature. Much, of course, will depend on the Euro, the prime element behind the downward move. But regardless of our current entry price and targets, we believe the $65-70 area constitutes a good entry point for long-term investors and we expect strong buying interest to materialise at these levels.
INTELLIGENCE BRIEF | 07 May 2010
Britain's opposition Conservatives became the largest party in the House of Commons on Friday in a bitterly fought election, but with 615 seats now declared, have fell short of a majority. The result heralds the beginning of a frantic period of negotiation and political horse-trading to decide the shape of the next government – leaving financial markets with an extended period of uncertainty to deal with.
OIL REPORT | 29 April 2010
We are renewing our targets to the downside. Considering the current US inventory levels and the recent developments on the Street, it is somewhat puzzling that the WTI has managed to maintain itself above $81. While the gasoline draw is supporting, we persist in our belief that the overall pressure remains to the downside. Our first target on the June contract stands at $82.00 (invalidated by a close above $85.35). The second stands at $81.30 – which now acts as a strong support – and the third at $80.20.
OIL REPORT | 19 April 2010
In line with our forecast, the WTI came under selling pressure, albeit to a larger extent than we anticipated. With risk appetite quickly waning on the Street following the fraud case brought forward against Goldman, there is possibly further room to the downside. The closure of most of Europe's airspace because of the ash cloud from the Icelandic volcano and its consequent impact on jet fuel demand is also a bearish element. Our first target on the June contract stands at $82.15 (invalidated by a close above $85.35). The second stands at $81.00 and the third at $80.20.
OIL REPORT | 08 April 2010
Contrary to our forecast, the WTI managed to make a move above the $85 mark. However, we believe that the rally may have run its course. Our assessment remains unchanged: fundamentals do not warrant currents levels. U.S. crude oil inventories rose for a 10th straight week; the dollar and renewed worries over Greece are strong bearish elements as well. Our first target stands at $84.75 (invalidated by a close above $87.35). The second target stands at $83.85 and the third at $82.10.
OIL REPORT | 25 March 2010
The correction we were expecting did not materialise and only our first target was reached. Fading concerns about Greece, encouraging economic data from China and talks of possible new sanctions against Iran are indeed supporting factors. The WTI is now poised to test the $85 mark. However, we maintain our view that current fundamentals do not warrant a significant move above that level. Our first target stands at $85 (invalidated by a close below $83). We expect a short-term profit-taking correction once that level is reached - our second target stands at $83.85 and the third at $82.10.
OIL REPORT | 05 March 2010
The WTI seems to be poised for a rally and a re-test of early January's highs. The latest EIA report, which was frankly bearish, was largely ignored by market players. Whether bullish momentum can be maintained depends on today's US job data - but in our opinion, the so-far tepid break above the $80 mark is a sign that any rally is likely to be met by strong resistance. At the moment, fundamentals do not warrant a move above $84.
INTELLIGENCE BRIEF | 02 March 2010
Uncertainty over Britain's political direction sent the pound on its biggest one-day drop in more than a year. An opinion poll published on Sunday suggested Britain's ruling Labour Party could remain the biggest party after this year's general election but without a majority in parliament. The prospect of such a result - known as a hung parliament - has rattled investors who fear that decision-making would become stymied, undermining a fragile UK recovery.
INTELLIGENCE BRIEF | 17 February 2010
Western powers are discussing ideas for a fourth round of UN sanctions they would like to impose by the end of February on Iran over its nuclear programme. While the timetable is ambitious in view of China's reluctance, speculations about the imminence of air strikes on Iran’s nuclear installations is likely to regain momentum. The prospect of sanctions implicating the energy sector will also raise the spectre of possible Iranian retaliation.
OIL REPORT | 04 February 2010
Our forecast remains unchanged as we strongly believe current levels represent excellent mid to long-term buying opportunities. We expect risk-aversion brought on by recent developments in Greece to be temporary, and we believe the underlying mood remains bullish as influx of fresh capital from money managers and funds wishing to allocate more money into commodities is likely to prompt buying on dips. Geopolitical tensions over Iran and Nigeria are also supportive. Our first target stands at $76.50, the second at $77.90 and third at $80.00.
OIL REPORT | 25 January 2010
Further losses may be in store for the WTI, but we strongly believe current levels represent excellent mid to long-term buying opportunities. We expect the risk-aversion brought on by recent developments on the Street to be temporary, and we believe the underlying mood remains bullish as influx of fresh capital from money managers and funds wishing to allocate more money into commodities is likely to prompt buying on dips. Our first target stands at $76.25, the second at $78.00 and third at $80.00.
OIL REPORT | 18 January 2010
The short-term correction we were expecting did materialise. Although further downside is possible (towards $76.25), we believe the overall mood remains bullish as influx of fresh capital from money managers and funds wishing to allocate more money into commodities is likely to prompt buying on dips. Our first target stands at $80.00, the second at $82.00 and third at $83.30.
OIL REPORT | 07 January 2010
While the close above the major resistance at $82 is a strong buy signal, the WTI failed to sustain gains above the October 2009 high at $83.19. We expect some profit-taking to materialise in the short-term. However, the overall mood remains bullish and market players are likely to buy the dips. Therefore, our new targets stand in close proximity to each other.
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Whitewire Intelligence is an independent company that provides finance specialists and investors with timely, dependable and opinionated geopolitical analysis and forecasts.
Relying on a network of highly qualified political analysts and market professionals, Whitewire Intelligence has a unique approach, as it focuses on direct market implications of world events. Whitewire Intelligence’s thinking is rigorous and dispassionate, yet focused on providing unambiguous perspectives on market moves resulting from international and domestic political trends, conflicts and threats. Its standard and tailor-made products help institutional and individual investors, traders, analysts and hedge funds worldwide to identify short and long term potential risks and investment opportunities in global and emerging markets, as well as the currency, bond and commodity markets.
Intelligence Brief / 15 January 2007
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